Cassilis

The most dispiriting thing about the row over the crime statistics is the paucity of confidence it demonstrates in some Tory supporters, particularly among bloggers. They’ve established a near-constant 20pt poll lead, notched up significant electoral victories in London & Crewe, garnered the sort of positive press coverage they’ve only dreamt about for c.15 years and seen even Labour’s most loyal and optimistic supporters in the press now talk about the ‘scale of’ rather than ‘likelihood’ of defeat. That’s the sort of context most oppositions would shed a limb for.

It’s also the sort of context that normally begets a confidence or an air of self-belief – a more positive and hopeful outlook that doesn’t fear ceding any positives to your opponents or playing every ball as though its your last shot deep in extra time and you’re still as likely to lose as win. The reaction to the basically positive crime statistics was layered in that guttural loathing too many right-wing bloggers still have for anything the government does or says. It’s not as though the Tories need to go hunting for targets – a PM who defined himself as prudent and cautious presides over a budget deficit at its worst level since WW2 and looks likely to have to rewrite their own rules, health & education still face serious problems despite a many-fold increase in funding, the new militancy among the unions, the Lisbon treaty, the prison population, inflation, ID cards, 42 days – the list goes on.

So why the ‘toys out the pram’ rejection (see here, here, here, here) of the figures? I scoured around looking for the diligent Tory blogger who’d been pouring over the BCS spreadsheets to uncover the truth but they were nowhere to be found – there simply was no decent rebuttal to the observation that in general crime is down significantly since Labour came to power. But as I pointed out above it’s an observation that shouldn’t particularly trouble confident & secure Tory supporters. The figures are mirrored across Western Europe so there’s a limit to the amount of credit Labour can take for them. Polls and stats pour out of governments at a tremendous rate and there will always be some that bring good news and some that don’t – Tories don’t need to cast around for every negative and demand line calls on every positive and the fact that some bloggers still do demonstrates how deeply partisan and lacking in confidence they are.

An opposition worthy of government would be able to take these figures in their stride and to be fair to Cameron and his team they haven’t entirely joined the baying mob calling for all statisticians to be hung from the nearest lamppost (and of course now that we've moved on to budget deficits and public borrowing and official stats paint a gloomy picture for the government they're suddenly to be trusted again). As I’ve argued elsewhere there’s an interpretation of his ‘broken society’ theme – a lack of civility, rude threatening behaviour, familial breakdown – which these figures do nothing to dent and which would probably resonate well in the country. Wherever you stand on those issues or the others listed above I’m sure most people would agree the opposition haven’t had it this good in a long time. Quite why some of their more manic supporters in the blogosphere and elsewhere should get so worked up about crime figures then is a mystery….