Cassilis

Different political traditions have different obsessions or defining traits. Those traits are very hard to alter and can have a significant impact on how voters see them. Before the mid-90’s the public associated Labour with producer interest, discomfort over personal wealth and distrust of the private sector. Those associations were enough to keep Labour from office for a generation simply because the public didn’t share them. Shedding them (or at least appearing to) was key to electoral success. Whether the ideological shift was genuine or not doesn’t matter in this context – the point was the connection in the public mind was severed and the electoral benefits accrued. On top of that Blair found away to articulate a continuity of principle within the Labour movement in general which meant as well as bringing in new voters he kept existing Labour supporters happy. Job done.

In broad terms Cameron needs to pull off a similar trick but the rows over the timing of tax cuts are undermining him. However much it pleases natural Conservative supporters the association between ‘tax cuts’ and the Tories remains an electoral liability rather than an asset. Polls will always show disaffection with the level of taxation under any government – the point is the public voted Labour back into office twice despite this so where the Tory notion that this is fertile campaigning ground comes from I don’t know. The rows make public a split within the party – those that view tax cuts as essential (and essential now) and those that don’t. As with Labour in the mid-90’s the arguments about the merits of each case aren’t the point – the point is having the disagreement so publicly undermines Cameron’s leadership and casts doubt on the idea that the party has shed it’s more ideological obsessions.

Cameron needs to close this off as soon as possible. The Conservative should state clearly they believe in smaller government and lower taxes but will happily breach these principles rather than undermine our education system or health service. In power the Conservatives will have a more focused and prudent approach to public spending and that posture (rather than explicit tax cuts) should be what they sell to the electorate. This is a positive and easy sell – they can draw strong contrasts with Labour’s shortcomings when it comes to prudent stewardship of public money (GP contracts etc.) and it doesn’t open the party to the charge of cutting frontline services.

Public concern over rising interest rates, Northern Rock and the economy in general won’t be assuaged by promises of tax cuts. Yes there’s a robust case that lowering the tax burden in these circumstances can actually help but in our current political climate that case can’t be properly made – the Tories opponents would destroy them over it. Cameron needs to understand that and bite the bullet on this one. His pitch should be simple - Brown has been profligate with your money, the Tories will be prudent....