It's almost 6 months since Gordon Brown assumed the Premiership and of all the emotions I anticipated feeling towards him at this stage, pity was the least likely. But that's exactly how I feel. Ceding the job he'd worked towards all his life to the shallow, intellectually inferior up-start from Fettes would've been galling enough but I'm guessing electoral pragmatism allowed him to square that particular circle. That it then took 13 years for him to collect 'his reward' has to have taken its toll on the man - and if the shaky hands, continual stuttering and black dog scowls aren't evidence of that I don't know what is.
I think two things have combined to give rise to Brown's current difficulties - one is the effective free reign Brown had on domestic policy since 1997 and the other is/was his predecessor’s innate political talent. Taking that second one first, Blair's gift for deflecting criticism and seemingly rising above the political fray provided a degree of cover for his Chancellor and I'm not sure Brown's ever properly acknowledged that debt. His (Blair's) ability to charm any interviewer, leave most PMQ's without a scratch and just generally create the impression of being in control was electoral gold dust for New Labour and is too readily dismissed as superficial or just spin. It was as central to New Labour's success as their achievements were.
And while the Blair charm worked its wonders Brown busied himself in the background, believing (with some justification) that his contribution was more tangible and real than the PR man out front ever gave him credit for. That's the root of his whole 'getting on with the business of government' strategy that he spells out at every opportunity now - it's what he believes he's been doing for 10 years and he had no intention of changing. The problem though is that because of the clear split in responsibility Brown has an underdeveloped sense of how government and the media interact. I realise that's a bold claim against a man who was pivotal in the formation of New Labour but that was opposition not government. Since the 3rd of May 1997 Brown effectively left all that to the Campbells / Mandelsons & Blairs of the world, more or less subscribing to the narrative that dismisses any concern with media management as froth and spin. But that's to massively underestimate what Blair brought to the table.
Blair (or more accurately Blair's team) would just never have let the November election debacle play out like that. Even if they'd have made the same fundamental mistake of trying to go to the wire before deciding they would've found a way to play the story, a line to take, that would've minimised the damage to the party. Likewise with Northern Rock or the missing HMRC data - Blair would've contrived an opportunity to emote impressively with some fraught customers or distance himself successfully from the HMRC practices that gave rise to the mistake, all of which would have insulated him and the party from the worst electoral impact of these incidents. The latest example of Brown's naivety comes over his decision not to attend the signing ceremony for the EU treaty in Lisbon this weekend but to fly out later and sign it. On one level it’s a massive ‘so what?’ – it’s ridiculous to infer anything from it or suggest it’s anything other than the PM managing his time effectively. On another level though it’s a spectacularly stupid thing to have done and the fact that no one in Brown’s circle seems to have even anticipated the reaction should alarm anyone who wishes Gordon Brown well.
I think two things have combined to give rise to Brown's current difficulties - one is the effective free reign Brown had on domestic policy since 1997 and the other is/was his predecessor’s innate political talent. Taking that second one first, Blair's gift for deflecting criticism and seemingly rising above the political fray provided a degree of cover for his Chancellor and I'm not sure Brown's ever properly acknowledged that debt. His (Blair's) ability to charm any interviewer, leave most PMQ's without a scratch and just generally create the impression of being in control was electoral gold dust for New Labour and is too readily dismissed as superficial or just spin. It was as central to New Labour's success as their achievements were.
And while the Blair charm worked its wonders Brown busied himself in the background, believing (with some justification) that his contribution was more tangible and real than the PR man out front ever gave him credit for. That's the root of his whole 'getting on with the business of government' strategy that he spells out at every opportunity now - it's what he believes he's been doing for 10 years and he had no intention of changing. The problem though is that because of the clear split in responsibility Brown has an underdeveloped sense of how government and the media interact. I realise that's a bold claim against a man who was pivotal in the formation of New Labour but that was opposition not government. Since the 3rd of May 1997 Brown effectively left all that to the Campbells / Mandelsons & Blairs of the world, more or less subscribing to the narrative that dismisses any concern with media management as froth and spin. But that's to massively underestimate what Blair brought to the table.
Blair (or more accurately Blair's team) would just never have let the November election debacle play out like that. Even if they'd have made the same fundamental mistake of trying to go to the wire before deciding they would've found a way to play the story, a line to take, that would've minimised the damage to the party. Likewise with Northern Rock or the missing HMRC data - Blair would've contrived an opportunity to emote impressively with some fraught customers or distance himself successfully from the HMRC practices that gave rise to the mistake, all of which would have insulated him and the party from the worst electoral impact of these incidents. The latest example of Brown's naivety comes over his decision not to attend the signing ceremony for the EU treaty in Lisbon this weekend but to fly out later and sign it. On one level it’s a massive ‘so what?’ – it’s ridiculous to infer anything from it or suggest it’s anything other than the PM managing his time effectively. On another level though it’s a spectacularly stupid thing to have done and the fact that no one in Brown’s circle seems to have even anticipated the reaction should alarm anyone who wishes Gordon Brown well.
Labels: Politics
10 Comments:
Not sure I agree about the orrible Blair although Ialways prefferred him to brown for straightforward poltical reasons . Did something on this myself actually
Cassie
Agree with most of this, as you might expect. Not sure GB so naive re news management- Bower suggests it was his mastery of such matters which first impressed the newcomer TB to the Commons. One of GB's big problems is that now he has nobody to blame- TB was at least someone to point the finger at within his own circle of acolytes. Now he has to take the rap and he isn't suited to taking it.
I also agree with much of what you say Liam, but I don't think it is a fatal problem for two reasons.
Firstly, Brown himself, despite the dour image, can be quite warm, and as I have said before on hear, he does come across with a sense of gravitas.
Which brings me to the second point; he isn't up against Tony Blair, or even a politician who can come within miles of Blair's charisma, politiking, fake sincerity, call it what you will. He is up against Cameron who comes across as shallow, wimpish, and to most working class people as a greased up public schoolboy.
But oppositions don't win elections, governments lose them and I am confident that Brown will emerge head and shoulders above his shallow contender. The way Cable has outshone Cameron in the last few weeks was most illuminating.
The way Cable has outshone Cameron in the last few weeks was most illuminating.
The court jester gets his topsy turvy minute but it means nothing. Made Brown look a prat but then doesn1t everyone Brown is a pretty disgusting himan being but more to the point he is a centralising socilalist which is not what anyone wants and has failed for ten years
Liam, you enjoy designing websites. Is there any possibility you could design one where the UN could donate some rice every time that newmania murders the English language? We could resolve the issue of food poverty in the world in about a month.
Bob, you said...
"He is up against Cameron who comes across as shallow, wimpish, and to most working class people as a greased up public schoolboy."
The trouble is that he DOESN'T come across this way in places like PMQ's. While his policy statements and "initiatives" are weak based and easy to pick apart, his performances in PMQ's are strong and make sense. Vince Cable still outshines the both of them, but Cameron regularly makes points against Brown and the government that, even if they were pretty weak comments to begin with, Brown manages to some how dignify by his poor tactics of rebuttal.
If Brown wasn't so good at making his party seem one note and unable to answer questions at PMQ's then maybe you'd be right, but Cameron comes across as someone asking pertinent questions but never getting given an answer...and unfortunately I feel the British public will sympathise and relate to that very well.
My spelling is better than Shakespeare’s Piper . I have a degree in English Lit actually, I also did a dissertation on aspects of English Language On the other hand I do not have typing skills, a typist or all day to tit around . The very old and the very young are , as in most things , much alike when it comes to boring adults on the subject of spelling . Refrain from your petit bourgeois quibbles please
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It appears that celebrity Blogger Dizzy as well as equally celebrated blogger Devils Kitchen will be floating down from Mount Olympus to hob nob with the usual suspects . These will include highly respected Croydonian Erudite Nick Drew witty City Unslicker and Ed
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Alternatively you could just assume that Brown is useless and living off the (undeserved) reputation as a successful Chancellor of the Exchequer.
In which case the whole Blair Brown animosity thing may be due to the fact that Blair (admittedly a very talented politician, but in my view appalling) knew that Brown was NBG and hence worked to keep him out of the top job as long as possible.
Lastly anyone who wants the job of PM as much as Brown did, and for the reasons he wanted it, is fundamentally unsuited to the post. As far as I can find out he has no or very limited non-political experience.
Very interesting post. I think Brown is more the author of his own misfortunes than you allow, however. Perhaps his gravest mistake was the trip to Iraq in an attempt to overshadow the Tory conference. He came back with a botched, semi-withdrawal from Basra, much of which had already been announced, and instantly sacrificed the reputation he had managed to build up as someone who eschewed spin. Now his every decision is regarded with suspicion by the media and public.
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