OK - I wouldn't stake the mortgage on it and better informed and connected bloggers than I may rubbish the idea but bear with me a little...
When Brown backed off an autumn election in early October the story ran that he'd ruled out a poll until at least 2009. The obsequious Andrew Marr pressed this point a little but Brown insisted that it was "very unlikely" (transcript). Under different circumstances this 'non-denial' would've attracted some attention but the story quickly became Brown's character and the remarkable reversal in fortunes over that couple of weeks - but he didn't rule it out.
Given the way his autumn eventually panned out a snap February poll would clearly be nuts. But its worth pointing out that despite the disasters of the last couple of months most polling still has the Tories short of a sufficient lead to land a workable majority. However embattled Brown is his team will take heart that Cameron has yet to poll in the 45/50% region seen by many as a tipping point in party fortunes (Cameron's team should be troubled by the same observation). Granted, the spring need only see one or two more 'Mr Bean' episodes and I suspect the dye will be cast - Brown will simply hang on until defeat in the poll whenever it comes. But if the New Year brings more Stalin than Bean and the Tories find themselves in choppy waters as they flesh out their platform don't underestimate Gordon Brown's lust for power - if he thought he could snatch another five years in office he wouldn't let a pseudo-promise to Andrew Marr stop him.
When Brown backed off an autumn election in early October the story ran that he'd ruled out a poll until at least 2009. The obsequious Andrew Marr pressed this point a little but Brown insisted that it was "very unlikely" (transcript). Under different circumstances this 'non-denial' would've attracted some attention but the story quickly became Brown's character and the remarkable reversal in fortunes over that couple of weeks - but he didn't rule it out.
Given the way his autumn eventually panned out a snap February poll would clearly be nuts. But its worth pointing out that despite the disasters of the last couple of months most polling still has the Tories short of a sufficient lead to land a workable majority. However embattled Brown is his team will take heart that Cameron has yet to poll in the 45/50% region seen by many as a tipping point in party fortunes (Cameron's team should be troubled by the same observation). Granted, the spring need only see one or two more 'Mr Bean' episodes and I suspect the dye will be cast - Brown will simply hang on until defeat in the poll whenever it comes. But if the New Year brings more Stalin than Bean and the Tories find themselves in choppy waters as they flesh out their platform don't underestimate Gordon Brown's lust for power - if he thought he could snatch another five years in office he wouldn't let a pseudo-promise to Andrew Marr stop him.
Labels: Politics
3 Comments:
If you turn out to be right, I'll buy a hat and take it off to you!
I'll hold you to that Tom.
Have a good New Year...
..and I will eat it ..( The hat).. I think it would be the right thing for him to do though. The travails of last year were a lot of media tattle really whereas real economic turbulence could send his already detested Party into meltdown.
At the moment he is living on a lucky reputation for competence and defying gravity much as Major did.If next year goes as expected it will really kill him off.
He should,go now ...and there you go I`ve almost talked myself into it .He won`t though, he`s a coward.
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